WHILE LEAVING 2011 BACK...
We have left another year back. Until the recent few years, Turkey has been supposed to be a good laboratory for the economists because of the different economic crises occurred in the country. However, since 2008 the economy in Turkey has been good while the devoloped countries have been coping with economic crises. The effects of problems in these countries, naturally reflect to the other countries in the world.
The crisis that was announced with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, influenced the whole world. Some developments were indicating the crisis will finish while the year 2009 was coming to end. Moreover, the world economy grew 5 % and the stocks were consumed. All these made people hope an increase in investment and production. But that was not the case actually.
In 2011, the global economy was shaped especially by the crisis of Europe. Turkey did not feel the destroying effects of the crisis but its stress. In the beginning, the economic situation in Greece was not considered to be so serious, since the Country's economy was not even 2 percent of the the whole EU. But soon after, the direct and indirect effects of the Greek crisis resulted in damages in other EURO countries. At the moment the most troubled countries of the EU are Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain, Ireland. The economic crises revolved into political crises and the governments of Greece and Italy changed.
While talking about the crisis in early 2011, the EU and the USA were mentioned together. However later on, the USA succeeded to supply liquidity and in the second half of the year the indicators of the USA were enough to provide a base for recovery.
On the other hand, the crisis of Europe affected Asian countries like China and India, indirectly. The growth rates of those countries diminished.
In Turkey budget deficit rate performance was good, staying under 2 percent. The main threat was the current account deficit. According to the updated statistics of EUROSTAT, budget deficit rate in EU countries is 6,6 %. On the other hand the total payment balance of Turkey is expected to be more than 70 billion dollars at the end of 2011.
In 2012 the recovery period of the USA is estimated to go on. In contrast, the EU will be facing with many risks. One more thing to emphasize is the elections in the USA, France and Germany.
The diminishing demand level in the USA and EU, will result in decrease of demand for raw material in manufacturer countries especially in China. In parallel to this development, price reductions in commodities are being expected.
The appreciation of Dollar against EURO is thought to go on. This case can cause difficulties in terms of competitiveness for the exporters whose costs are mostly in dollar.
How will the crisis in Europe affect our Export?... Obviously the most important market of Turkey is still Europe… The developed countries are going to be saving more than spending this year. Therefore in 2012 a decrease in import will occur in these countries.
The expectations say, the problems in EU will negatively affect our export to the region. However some says the situation in Europe will produce positive outcomes for Turkey because the saving trend will result in spending less instead of paying a lot of money for the brands. Turkish products with good quality and less cost will be a good alternative for the consumers.
Another reason for the optimist side is the expected decrease in the amounts of orders. Ordering small amounts from far eastern countries is not preferred due to the high freight costs. Turkey is very near to Europe with respect to Asian countries. This is an advantage.
As for the growth rate of Turkey in 2012; none of the expectations is presenting a growth rate more than 4 %. The government's estimate is 4 %, IMF's estimate is 2,2 %, OECD's estimate is 3 % and The Economist's estimate is 3,5 %.
In summary; 2012 will be a tough year. The firms has to be very careful under the uncertainities of the new coming year.
President of Denizli Exporters' Association